A research team has developed a method to quantify the predictability of climate tipping points—large-scale, irreversible changes in the Earth system that are feared to occur as climate change progresses.
In this study, the question of whether climate tipping points can be predicted was addressed through Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) using data assimilation. Simulations focused on two major tipping elements: the large-scale dieback of the Amazon rainforest and the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The results demonstrated that it is possible to predict the presence and timing of tipping points even without directly observing the tipping events themselves. However, this study also revealed that highly accurate observation data are essential for reliable predictions, and the level of precision required was clearly identified. While many studies have aimed to predict specific tipping events, this research discusses the fundamental question of whether such predictions are possible. The proposed method is expected to provide a scientific basis for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies that take into account the risk of climate tipping.
Earth system possibly goes to the different equilibrium due to climate change. Can we predict it?
Papers
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Title: Predictability of Climate Tipping Focusing on Internal Variability in the Earth System
Authors: Amane Kubo* and Yohei Sawada
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113146
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